A Russian invasion of Ukraine could result in more than $1 billion in losses for Ukraine's renewable energy sector.
Such a forecast was voiced by Verisk analysts with reference to the estimates of the Kiev School of Economics in a column for the publication Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
"It’s hard to find a sector of society that hasn’t been affected, and Ukraine’s nascent renewable energy sector is no exception. The team I lead at the data and analytics firm Verisk has learned the damage could surpass $1 billion, which would make it the largest renewable energy sector loss event in history," – said Tom Johansmeyer, an analyst at the American company Verisk.
The vast majority of alternative energy capacities are located in the south of Ukraine, where hostilities are currently ongoing. It is in this area that the largest wind farms are located.
It is too early to estimate losses, but according to Verisk, only the potential insured losses of wind farms in Ukraine amount to over $750 million. Potential additional damage is at least another $100 million.
“The aggregate renewable energy loss would reach just over $860 million, even without any additional companies coming forward. But with potential losses to solar facilities currently unknown, it’s too soon to tell where the total could end up,” analysts said.
According to experts, business-interruption losses can become more expensive than physical damage.
"The recovery of the renewable energy sector will begin with insurance companies," said Tom Johansmeyer. He also pointed out that the flow of insurance capital will help solve the economic component of Ukraine's energy security strategy in the post-war period.