An unusually hot summer with hail and downpours, followed by sudden winter cold snaps amid a thaw—Ukraine’s climate is looking less and less like what used to be called “temperate.” Are these signs of global warming, and how drastically is our climate changing?
Svitlana Boichenko, a leading researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and a climatologist, discussed this in an interview with UNIAN.
The scientist immediately emphasizes that climate refers to established weather patterns over at least 30 years, confirmed by scientific observations. Therefore, it is not yet appropriate to definitively state that Ukraine’s temperate continental climate is changing into something else. However, amid global warming, a climatic transformation is also taking place in Ukraine, one that includes regional variations. Human activity is another factor driving these changes.
The disappearance of transitional seasons
Despite the lack of clear year-to-year patterns, in recent decades spring has begun abruptly—usually in April and immediately with high temperatures. At the same time, warm autumns are also lasting longer.
Against this background of warming, according to the climatologist, frosts may also occur. In particular, a tendency toward sharp cooling in January has been observed.
“Yes, we all used to think winters were rather mild, but according to thirty years of observation, there are cold spells in certain months. This year we saw and felt it for ourselves, when powerful frosts hit in January and continued in February,” Svitlana Boychenko reported.
Cold winters do not contradict global warming
Rising temperatures are only one of the manifestations of climate instability. This does not rule out periods of cold in certain seasons or specific regions.
Thus, according to the scientist, random deviations from the climate norm cannot be excluded. These may be observed both in winter and in summer.
“Even amid generally mild winters, there can be periods of severe frosts. As I have already mentioned, these will occur more frequently than before… In summer, long hot periods may also be interrupted by cool and rainy spells,” the climatologist predicts.
From drought to downpour
Instead of ordinary summer rains, the past ten years in Ukraine have seen powerful downpours. This is precisely due to global warming – abnormally high temperatures 'seal' desiccated soil, preventing it from absorbing enough moisture.
Previously, such phenomena were limited to the south, but now they have spread across the country. The greatest threat is posed to cities, where natural ground cover is covered by concrete and tile.
Longer and more moderate precipitation is brought by cyclones from the Atlantic region. Such rains are more favorable, and fortunately, in recent years, they have become more common in Ukraine.
“At the same time, atmospheric processes remain unstable: even after several days of steady, cyclonic rains, some regions may suddenly experience local downpours, thunderstorms, and hail,” the scientist noted.
Ukraine's place in the global warming trend
Back in the twentieth century, Ukraine conformed to the general trends of global warming; however, during the twenty-first century, it has become clear that Ukraine is now slightly outpacing the global average rate.
“At the same time, we were in a temperate climate zone and remain in it. We are not going anywhere from this. However, there are fluctuations that lead to some differences against the background of our overall climatic conditions,” added Svitlana Boychenko.
According to her, our climate initially shifted somewhat towards a Mediterranean pattern with wet winters and hot summers, but now another transformation is underway.
Additional disasters
Among the natural disasters that may threaten the country amid climate change, the researcher mentions heavy rains, which lead to flooding and landslides, squally winds, as well as heat waves that already claim hundreds of thousands of lives in Europe.
EcoPolitic previously reported that due to global warming, the number of hot days with temperatures over 35°C in the world's most populous capitals has increased by 25% compared to the 1990s.
