The start of the year was one of the hottest on record. What can we expect from 2026 overall?

The start of the year was one of the hottest on record. What can we expect from 2026 overall? shutterstock
Maria Semenova

The global average temperature in 2026 could be 1.37–1.58°C higher than in 1990

The first quarter of 2026 ranked fourth among the warmest on record. Each month, the deviation from average temperatures grew larger. As early as the second half of the year, a powerful El Niño could make 2026 the second warmest year on record since meteorologists began collecting climate data. And the chances of it becoming the warmest year on record are 19%.

This was reported by Carbon Brief.

For its quarterly report, the organization analyzed data from five research groups—NASA, NOAA, the Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF. All of them confirm that 2026 has entered the top five “leaders” right from the start.

Джерело: Carbon Brief

Even the La Niña phenomenon, which typically lowers global temperatures, did not prevent the high temperatures. Since the phenomenon began to weaken, the months have become increasingly hotter compared to average levels.

Temperature anomalies were observed in a number of regions around the world. Unseasonably warm weather swept across the western United States and western China.

Джерело: Carbon Brief

Temperatures have broken records in many parts of the world. The map shows the locations where the first quarter was one of the five warmest on record.

Джерело: Carbon Brief

In fact, record-high temperatures were recorded across more than 5% of the planet in early 2026. 24.5% of the planet ranked among the five hottest on record.

"Super" El Niño

According to forecasts, temperatures will only rise throughout the year, and El Niño will begin in the fall; moreover, this phenomenon is expected to reach unprecedented intensity.

"The average global temperature in 2026 will range from 1.37°C to 1.58°C, with a best estimate of 1.47°C. This puts 2026 on track to become the second-warmest year on record," Carbon Brief concludes.

EcoPolitic previously reported that for Kyiv, March 2026 was the driest in 135 years of observations.

Related
Heatwaves exacerbate air pollution. How does this affect health?
Heatwaves exacerbate air pollution. How does this affect health?

Prolonged exposure to a combination of air pollution and heat can lead to chronic illnesses and even premature death

The relaxation of the EU ETS, demands from industry, and forest fires: a round-up of EU economic news
The relaxation of the EU ETS, demands from industry, and forest fires: a round-up of EU economic news

The heatwave is already forcing investors to rethink their approach to risk management, yet the industry still wants to pay less for emissions

Forest fires in the EU have already destroyed more than 17,000 hectares of land in recent days
Forest fires in the EU have already destroyed more than 17,000 hectares of land in recent days

The authorities are forced to close roads and set up shelters for people at risk from natural disasters

Mutually detrimental effects: how global sport is adapting to climate change
Mutually detrimental effects: how global sport is adapting to climate change

Emissions from the 2026 FIFA World Cup are estimated at 7.8 million tonnes of CO₂