Official data on the supply and demand for quotas in the Chinese national carbon market indicate a surplus of quotas in 2021 and 2022 in the amount of 0.03% and 0.25%, respectively.
Yan Qin, a leading analyst at the London Stock Exchange, wrote about this on LinkedIn, citing data released at the 2024 Carbon Market Conference.
This large-scale event took place on July 21 in Wuhan, China.
The expert said that in the second compliance period (2021-2022), for both years, China's confirmed carbon emissions are slightly lower than the allocated quotas (~5.1 billion/year). This resulted in a small surplus, but significantly lower than in the first period of 2019-2020.
Xia Yingxiang, a specialist from the Ministry of Environmental Protection, noted that the overall gains and losses of allowances in the second implementation cycle are basically balanced, which is in line with the waiting policy. He provided specific figures:
- the volume of allocation of quotas on the national carbon emissions trading market in 2021 and 2022 was 5.096 billion tons and 5.104 billion tons, respectively;
- actual verified emissions amounted to 5.094 billion tons and 5.091 billion tons, respectively;
- the surplus is equal to 1.47 million tons in 2021 and 12.98 million tons in 2022, which is 0.03% and 0.25%, respectively.
At the same time, key emitters used a total of 3,717,400 tonnes of CCERs (national certified voluntary emission reductions) to settle quotas and offsets, the expert said.
Earlier, EcoPolitic reported that China is accelerating transition to "green" steel, as CBAM is "looming".
