The share of renewable energy sources (RES) in gross final energy consumption is planned to reach 27% in 2030.
This figure was provided by Semen Dragnev, a specialist at the Biomass Research and Engineering Center, which specializes in providing consulting services for energy production from biomass, biogas, and municipal solid waste. He analyzed the National Renewable Energy Action Plan for the period up to 2030 and the action plan for its implementation, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine on August 13, 2024.
Here are the main points of his analysis of the document's provisions.
What is planned
It is assumed that the share of RES by 2030 by sector will be:
- in heating and cooling systems – 33%;
- in electricity production – 29%;
- in the transport sector – 17%.
How are they going to achieve this?
The plan provides for the implementation of 38 measures. They are aimed at achieving the following goals:
- Development of RES in the production of electrical energy. Necessary financing: $12.6 billion. Of this, $1.681 billion is for the development of RES generation capacities based on the use of biomass and biogas.
- Development of RES in heating and cooling systems. Necessary financing: $6.7 billion. Of this, $3.419 billion is for the development of heat generation capacities from RES.
- Increasing the use of energy sources obtained from RES in the transport sector. Necessary funding: $1.25 billion. Of this, $450 million will be used for bioethanol in the transport sector, $19 million for biodiesel fuel, and $2 million for biomethane.
- Regulatory and organizational support for RES development.
According to the expert, the bioenergy industry in Ukraine has significant potential for development. This is due to the peculiarities of the climate, the perspective of the agricultural sector, and the availability of the necessary workforce.
Semyon Dragnev demonstrates in a graph and table at what pace RES should develop in Ukraine in order to achieve the goal set by the government:
Graphics: saf.org.ua.
Graphics: saf.org.ua.
According to the specialist, agricultural residues and energy plants have the greatest energy potential in Ukraine.
Heat energy production
According to the National Plan, by 2030, the contribution of biomass to the structure of renewable energy consumption in the heating and cooling sector will be 5,749 thousand tons of oil equivalent per year (thousand tons of oil equivalent/year), and biogas will be 235 thousand tons of oil equivalent ./year for the total gross final consumption of energy from RES – 7,400 thousand t.e./year. Thus, the share of biomass together with biogas in 2030 will be almost 81% in this sector of all RES.
"One more potential renewable source for the production of thermal energy can be biomethane, which will replace natural gas as its complete analogue," Semyon Dragnev is confident.
He also reminded that in the context of negotiations on joining the EU, it is necessary to introduce a mechanism for issuing guarantees of the origin of thermal energy produced from RES, in accordance with the requirements of the RED III Directive.
Production of electricity
The installed electrical capacity of biomass and biogas facilities of the electric power industry as of the beginning of 2024 was 319 MW. This figure does not take into account objects located in temporarily occupied territories.
The plans include the construction and commissioning of new biogeneration capacities.
It is planned that the production of electrical energy from biomass will increase to 3850 GW⋅h in 2030. Its total capacity will be about 876 MW.
The government sees the following as potential directions for increasing the share of RES in electricity:
- use of bioenergy at thermal power plants and thermal power plants by converting them;
- the use of biomethane in new highly maneuverable generation or thermal power plants and cogeneration plants that use natural gas.
Use of liquid and gaseous biofuels in the transport sector
In 2020, the gross final consumption of energy from RES in this sector was 95 thousand tons of oil equivalent (148 thousand tons of oil equivalent, taking into account multipliers according to Directive 2009/28/EC). Of them, 51.1 thousand tons are — bioethanol/ethyl tert-butyl ether produced from bioethanol.
According to the National Plan, by 2030, the share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final energy consumption will be at least 17%, which in natural terms is 830,000 t.e. Of these, the consumption of liquid biofuel (bioethanol, biodiesel) will provide 420,000 t.e.
Biomethane
Currently, biomethane is an extremely promising direction. The European Commission plans to produce 35 billion cubic meters by 2030. m of biomethane per year in order to completely abandon the consumption of Russian fossil fuels. According to calculations, Ukraine can potentially provide up to 20% of this need.
The total energy potential of biogas/biomethane production in Ukraine is estimated at 21.8 billion cubic meters. m per year (18.7 million tons per year).
In August, EcoPolitic reported that Kyiv Region now has biogas industry development plan.
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Шn 2023 the world has renewed annual record for electricity production from RES.
