Ukraine has prepared its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2) to the Paris Agreement, which envisages a 68-73% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 compared to 1990 levels.
This goal was announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Ukraine in the draft order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine “On Approval of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine to the Paris Agreement”.
The draft NDC2 states that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine causes significant uncertainty in planning and implementing Ukraine's sustainable low-carbon development goals in the medium and long term.
Ukraine's NDC2 covers the territory of the country within its internationally recognized borders. It is assumed that after the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders, the contribution will be adjusted based on verified information.
Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the NDC2
Covered gases: all greenhouse gases not regulated by the Montreal Protocol:
- carbon dioxide (CO2)
- methane (CH4)
- nitrous oxide (N2O);
- hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);
- perfluorocarbons (PFCs);
- sulfur hexafluoride (SF6);
- nitrogen trifluoride (NF3).
Sectors of the economy covered:
- energy sector
- industrial processes and product use;
- agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry (ALLF);
waste.
The timeframe of the document is from January 1, 2031 to December 31, 2035.
How we will achieve it
Ukraine plans to achieve its NDC2 goal by implementing domestic policies and measures. At the same time, our country intends to participate in the market mechanisms of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Ukraine already cooperates with Switzerland and Japan under the mechanisms of this Article.
How greenhouse gas emissions were modeled
Experts have developed three forecast scenarios until 2050 using several mathematical models, including the TIMES-Ukraine energy system model for the Energy and Industrial Processes sectors, a mass balance model for the Waste sector, and special simulation tools for the Agriculture and ALLF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) sectors.
What targets has Ukraine set before
The first emission reduction target set in Ukraine's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution contained a goal of not exceeding 60% of 1990 emissions in 2030. The Updated Nationally Determined Contribution of Ukraine, submitted in 2021 to the UNFCCC, set a more ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
The authors of the document note that Ukraine's NDC2 sets more ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to Ukraine's Updated Nationally Determined Contribution until 2030, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers in July 2021.
As a reminder, Ukraine's Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement is approved by the Cabinet of Ministers for a period of 10 years, reviewed and updated at least once every 5 years or in the event of changes in climate conditions and innovations in science and technology.
The authors of the document reminded that in October 2024, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Law of Ukraine “On the Basic Principles of State Climate Policy”, which provides for the achievement of climate neutrality by Ukraine by 2050. The Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2050 also provides for a corresponding goal for the energy sector. In addition, the Energy Strategy states that the operation of coal-fired generation will be gradually reduced until its complete decommissioning in 2035.
At the end of May, EcoPolitic reported on the event “Climate Policy of Ukraine: NDC in the face of modern challenges” organized by the Ministry of Environment. A constructive dialog between government officials and industrialists did not take place then.
