The US's grandiose plans for Venezuelan oil after seizing control of the country could mark the beginning of a global retreat from clean energy.
According to Politico, this venture could not only change the geopolitics of the 21st century, but also become a marker of the scale of further global warming.
While China leads in the production and export of clean energy and Europe adheres to climate principles, the US is sinking deeper and deeper into a parallel reality. Whose reality will prevail will become clear in the near future.
Resource hostage
After Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed from power, a promise followed: the "right" to extract wealth from Venezuelan soil would pass to American companies. And the US government would be in charge of oil sales, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
The focus of Trump and his administration on fossil fuels is obvious.
"Let's just look reality in the eye. Oil, gas, and coal are what run the world. Period," the publication quotes Wright as saying.
This vision of the energy future is opposed to the development of green energy, which some governments consider a factor in market dominance.
Europe's weakness
On the one hand, the EU has made a political commitment to transition to renewable energy sources, but in doing so has increased its dependence on Chinese wind turbines and solar panels. These technologies are at the heart of the green transition, but Europe itself is unable to become self-sufficient in this area.
At the same time, Europe depends on the US for natural gas supplies due to its rejection of Russian fuel. The EU cannot abandon this resource overnight, as it uses it to produce a significant portion of its energy.
Regardless of who wins — China with renewable energy or the US with fossil fuels — Europe remains in a weak position, unable to influence the future of energy, according to Politico.
Uncertain investments
However, the recovery of Venezuela's oil industry requires significant investment. Companies are expressing doubts, not only because of the political situation, but also because of possible scenarios for oil demand.
"If the world can keep its Paris Agreement promise to limit global warming to below 2 °C, global oil demand will decrease by 50% between 2035 and 2050," said Jon Odegard Hansen, head of energy scenario analysis at Rystad Energy.
This is confirmed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast. According to it, the most likely scenario will see demand peak in 2030 and gradually decrease thereafter.
However, this forecast did not satisfy the US. Under pressure from the United States, the IEA offered another scenario. It is based only on current energy policies, pushing increased oil demand out as far as 2050.
This very scenario underpins US determination in developing Venezuela's fields. Worldwide, energy companies continue to seek out new deposits. Both businesses and the Trump administration are convinced that RES will not be popular outside China and Europe. The rest of the world will still need oil.
Recall that recently the United States withdrew from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as well as from a number of other international agreements and organizations related to environmental protection.
Even earlier, permission was granted there for offshore drilling on the coasts of Florida and California for oil extraction.
